After six months of study, much political arm wrestling, and some serious financial analysis, Dr. Martin Starr, president of southwestern University, had reached a secision. To the delight of its students, and to the disappointment of its athletic boosters. SWU would not be relocating to a new football site but would expand the capacity at its on-compaus stadium.
Adding 21,000 seats, including dozens of luxury skyboxes, would not please everyone. The influential football coach, Billy Bob Taylor, had long argued the need for a first-class stadium, one with built-in domitory rooms and a palatial office appropriate for the coach of a future NCAA champion team. But the decision was made, and everyone, including the coach, would learn to live with it.
The job now was to get construction going immediately after the current season ended. This would allow exactly 270 days until the upcoming season opening game. The contractor, Hill Contruction (Bob Hill being an alumnus, of course), signed the contract. Bob Hill looked at the tasks his engineers had loutlined and looked President Starr in the eye. "I guarantee the team will be able to take the field on scheduled next year", he said with a sense of confidence. I sure hope so, replied Starr. The contract penalty of $10,000 per day for running late is nothing compared to what Coach Bill Bob Taylor will do to you if our opening game with Penn State is delayed or cancelled. Hill, Sweating slightly, did not respond. In football-crazy texas, Hill Construction would be mud if the 270-day targed were missed.
Back in his office, Hill again reviewed the data. (See Table 11.11 below and note that optimistic time estimates can be used as crash times.) He then gathered his foremen. "People, if we're not 75% sure we'll finish this stadium in less than 270 days, I want this project crashed! Give me the cost figures for a target date of 250 days, and also for 240 days. I want to be early, not just on time!"
Discussion Questions
3) Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2017.
